All categories · 27 core indicators
12 of 27 core indicators in the red
The market's health check, on one screen.
October 5: 12 of 27 core indicators in the red.
40 indicators across 12 categories, each set against its own 20-year history and updated each day as sources publish.
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An example from 5 Oct 2026, 3:27 PM New York time. Members see today's readings.
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From the example
Flagged that week.
Geopolitics and war · Sep 2026
Geopolitical risk index
146.21 Red
Flag: Entered the red band.
Higher than 91% of readings in the last 20 years.
The last times it read this high: October 2023, February 2022, November 2015. What followed: October 2023: the July–August 2024 sell-off began 9 months later; February 2022: already during the January–October 2022 sell-off; November 2015: no major sell-off in the following 12 months. A major sell-off began within 12 months of about one date in four over the last 40 years.
Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello, "Measuring Geopolitical Risk".
Asset valuations · Q2 2026
Stock market value to economy
255.05% Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 98% of readings in the last 20 years.
It has not read this high before in data going back to October 1947.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Energy and commodities · 29 Sep 2026
Diesel minus crude spread
$113.48 Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years.
The last times it read this high: May 2022. What followed: May 2022: already during the January–October 2022 sell-off. A major sell-off began within 12 months of about one date in four over the last 40 years.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Past episodes describe what happened then. They are not a forecast of what happens next.
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