Sample reading · October 2026
12 of 27 core indicators in the red.
19 of 40 overall, counting every indicator. This is this week's real reading, as subscribers see it summarised. The dashboard adds every indicator's dial, history chart, direction and release dates.
The overall picture
Readings from the check on 5 Oct 2026, 3:27 PM New York time. Each indicator shows its source's latest release.
Overall
12 of 27 core indicators in the red
Average 20-year rank
67 / 100
Orange. The average 20-year rank of the core indicators: 0 means every one at its green end, 100 every one at its red end.
Most extreme reading
30-year Treasury yield
5.58%
Red. Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
One category, as members see it
Category
Rates and bonds
1 of 3 core indicators in the red
76 / 100
Orange · average 20-year rank
30-year Treasury yield
5.58%
Red · Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Core consumer price inflation
2.45% year-on-year
Orange · Higher than 69% of readings in the last 20 years
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
10-year minus 3-month yield
1.01 pts percentage points
Yellow · Lower than 59% of readings in the last 20 years
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Flagged this week
Indicators are flagged when they enter the red, cross into a new band, or move towards red faster than 90% of past 6-month moves.
Geopolitics and war · Sep 2026
Geopolitical risk index
146.21 Red
Flag: Entered the red band.
Higher than 91% of readings in the last 20 years.
The last times it read this high: October 2023, February 2022, November 2015. What followed: October 2023: the July–August 2024 sell-off began 9 months later; February 2022: already during the January–October 2022 sell-off; November 2015: no major sell-off in the following 12 months. A major sell-off began within 12 months of about one date in four over the last 40 years.
Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello, "Measuring Geopolitical Risk".
Asset valuations · Q2 2026
Stock market value to economy
255.05% Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 98% of readings in the last 20 years.
It has not read this high before in data going back to October 1947.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Energy and commodities · 29 Sep 2026
Diesel minus crude spread
$113.48 Red
Flag: 6-month move towards red among the fastest 10% in 20 years.
Higher than 99% of readings in the last 20 years.
The last times it read this high: May 2022. What followed: May 2022: already during the January–October 2022 sell-off. A major sell-off began within 12 months of about one date in four over the last 40 years.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Past episodes describe what happened then. They are not a forecast of what happens next.
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